Our CPG world is one where technology is rapidly evolving and transforming how consumers receive, seek and use information to impact buying and shopping decisions making it harder than ever to manage and almost impossible to control. In the March 18, 2009 edition of USA TODAY, an article appeared with this title "Extra, Extra! Are newspapers dying?" with a subtitle of "Closings scare some: others say no way will newsrooms die". The article pointed out that "At least one city – possibly San Francisco, Miami, Minneapolis or Cleveland – likely will soon lose its last daily newspaper." According to the Newspaper Association of America, Sunday circulation has dropped about 20% between 1999 and 2007. From Nielsen Monitor Plus we see how ad spending was off in 2008 as our economy weakened, with three of the four biggest declines from local and national newspapers. As U.S. retailers have relied on newspapers to deliver a major portion of their advertising, these trends obviously suggest a need to look for alternative forms of communication vehicles.
As a researcher and avid newspaper reader, I thought it might makes sense to do an audit of the number of feature ads and coupons my family is exposed to on any given Sunday. For this audit I selected the May 3, 2009 edition of The Cincinnati Enquirer. Maybe a little heavy being the week before Mother’s Day, but nevertheless, I found it to be an eye-opening audit. In the body of the newspaper I found four very good full page ads from Kroger. There were three separate coupon booklets yielding a total page count of 124.
There were 24 inserts from various manufacturers and retailers ranging from just two pages from Aldi to 48 pages each for Kohl’s and JCPenney; total page count of 352. How many of you also receive a plastic bag on Saturday or Sunday mornings that is stuck to your mail box or floating in a pool of water at the end of your driveway on rainy days? Well I do and for this particular week we had ads from five retailers totaling another 62 pages.
So, is this the best way to reach our time-starved and diverse population base? Full page ads and coupon booklets with 124 pages; ad inserts totaling 352 pages; and stuff in plastic bag adding another 62 pages. The final grand total page count (not counting car ads, local specialty shop ads, etc.) was 538 pages. Kind of like being asked to read a Stephen King novel every Sunday in order to find an advertisement or coupon offer of interest to me as a shopper. And, isn’t it kind of odd with all of the discussion around sustainability issues regarding plastic shopping bags, that there has been little mention regarding the amount of newspapers filling our waste dumps? By the way, I clipped one coupon from these 538 pages and put it in my coupon envelope and I just hope I remember to use it before it expires.
While we don’t think we will see the complete demise of newspapers, technology will clearly play a much bigger role in the future as newspapers will diminish in importance or shift to an online or digital delivery mode. So who do you think the winners will be with respect to the future of media/communication vehicles?
- Will it be computers and online engagements?
- What about mobile phones and PDA devices?
- Will the promise of in-store engagements prosper?
- Will traditional radio and television emerge as winners?
- What about the new age of social networks?
- Or, will the promise of frequent shopper or loyalty card programs come to fruition?
The answer is that a well integrated multi-media/communication program will be required to target and reach a diverse and evolving population base. And you will notice that I have put newspapers back into the equation, but we will see dramatic changes in how newspapers are delivered as they go online or are delivered through devices like the Amazonkindle - the electronic book that enables wireless downloads of books, magazines and newspapers in less than 60 seconds. Television is still king in terms of overall audience size and length of engagement. However, usage patterns across the above vehicles can vary considerably by demographic segments and future marketers will deploy sophisticated media planning systems to maximize reach and frequency of their consumer connections.
But we would be naive to think we understand where technology will take us in the future. The emergence of MP3 players and the success of IPods and IPhones are great examples of how technology can change how consumers receive and seek information in a very short time horizon. The Ipod has grown from a device for downloading and listening to music; to storing photos; to downloading videos clips and movies; to a cell phone with software applications whose end count appears to be almost limitless.
For further information or to arrange a comprehensive presentation on consumer shopping patterns, please contact Todd Hale at 859-905-4615.
- Todd Hale, TheShopperWonk
-email: todd.hale@nielsen.com
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